Trump may be a rat, but I have no desire to copulate with him” — Ted Cruz

Election shenanigans are nothing new. So are delays in the count. That’s why the 20th amendment baked in such a long stretch between election day and the inauguration.

The founders recognized the challenge of accuracy in large, popular elections. The creation of an elector is one example of their forethought to address election uncertainty.

A secure election is important to the legitimacy of the government. …


I have always been a bit of a data geek. I am typically an early adopter of just about every technology. I probably spend too much time looking at product reviews online. I am obsessed with interconnecting data into a “System of Systems”, all in the hope of using data to make better decisions.

With COVID, my weight got out of control. So, this spring I got back on a diet (lost 30lbs so far). I got more obsessed with improving my health. I also bought a new Trek Domane SL5. I loved my Trek FX 7.2 but it was…


The world economy is integrated in ways too difficult to understand. A single mind or government can not work out the implications of each change. The economy works because it is locally optimized to the markets on the ground. The economy is guided within a general framework of knowledge. It works despite authority's omnipotent effort to alter economic direction.

The COVID shock has destabilized the balance. Left unchecked, this disruption will create more and more damage to the world food system and economy. The disruption causing damage is not the virus. We have lived through 400k years of pandemics. The…


Progress: The World is Getting Better all the Time

The world has changed a lot in the last 40 years, and we have innovation to thank for much of it.

Consider what life was like In the 1970s. In those days, the bottom 10% of earners weren’t just poor, they were dirt poor. They couldn’t afford a car, a TV, an apartment…anything.

Today things are different. No matter how poor you are, you can afford all sorts of things — two TV sets, a car, an Xbox, two computers air conditioning, and still be in the bottom 10% on the economic scale.

The data says that incomes haven’t really…


In a country of 330M people with open borders, massive travel, and global trade we can not depend on the decisions of a single leader to protect us from war, economic collapse or a virus.

No forecasting model is right, but they are informative. Through data and models we can form scenarios that form plans. You can improve plans and test decision making. Then when bad things happen, decision makers can make better decisions, because they have practiced. That is how we practice for wars that never happen. It applies to viruses.

Background

Scientists measure the intensity of a viral outbreak…


Sam Altman once said, “the hardest part about coming up with great ideas, is that the best ideas often look terrible at the beginning.”

Take the story of Moses and the Pharaoh. What must have been going through the all-powerful Pharaoh’s mind when some guy walks in off the street and announces, in no uncertain terms, that the game is up? “Let my people go.”

Imagine the elevator pitch Moses would have come up with for a VC for this plan:

Moses: I have this idea to redirect an under-used labor force, free them from slavery, and apply their human…


Note: This document was a collaborative effort and is offered as an outline to potential solutions for the shortage of ventilators. It is the by-product of several conversations and may contain errors or omissions. Several people have contributed to this document, including Lavinder Liddar, Eugene Scarberry, Dave Schottke, Barry Farkas and others. Please offer comments to help us correct the document.

Few of us ever expected to know how many ventilators are available in the U.S.at any given moment — there are roughly 160,000, plus another 12,700 in the National Strategic Stockpile maintained by the federal government for national emergencies…


Right after 9/11 we were a bit dazed. It took us time to understand the threat and adapt. Markets and airlines were shut down. Then airlines got back online, but with lots of security. In time the national guard was removed. New scanners were deployed. We were back to normal. With an improved system.

Going forward with COVID19, we need to focus on getting back to work. Even with the threat of further transmission, we can not shut down the US economy for 18 months. Throwing money from helicopters has an appeal, but it does nothing for GDP or 401ks.


In the US we spend $1.6T each year on food, and between $500B and $1T on healthcare related to poor nutrition. My recent discussions with leading insurance companies suggest the health care cost might be as high as $1.9T per year. The Lancent reports that 1 in 5 deaths are related to poor diet.

While innovation drives down the cost of computers, telecom, software, and a range of other products, oddly the cost of good food keeps going up.

We have two food systems in the United States:

System A — Ultra Processed and Cheap: born after World War II…


The end of the year is a time to sit, relax with family and be happy for what you’ve accomplished over the last 12 months. It’s also a time to give thanks for all of the advantages we enjoy. For me, a lot of that turns back to innovation and the amazing work being done every day by entrepreneurs working on projects big and small. Because it’s never easy. Every big company was once a small company. Every small company was once a tiny company. Every tiny company was once a single person, alone in a room, with a phone…

Carter Williams

Early stage startups, creative destruction, cool technology and other stuff like sailing. Innovation is Deflationary.

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